Author: MIL-OSI Publisher

Source: Australia’s climate in 2024: 2nd warmest and 8th wettest year on record

I am pleased to announce the appointment of Steve Waugh AO to the Centre for Australia-India Relations Advisory Board.

The Centre works across government, industry, academia and the community to build greater understanding within the Australia-India relationship and encourage business to seize the opportunities of our economic partnership.

The Advisory Board helps set the strategic priorities for the Centre’s programs and activities, supporting partnerships in business, the arts, education, health, science, technology and sport.

Mr Waugh is a former Australian men’s cricket captain and has long been a champion of strengthening ties between Australia and India. He has made significant philanthropic contributions over the past 20 years through the Steve Waugh Foundation. Mr Waugh has also recently published a photography book on India titled, ‘The Spirit of Cricket: India’.

I would like to thank outgoing board member Adam Gilchrist AM for his valuable contribution to the Centre since its establishment, and to the broader relationship with India. 

Source: Workplace Gender Equality Agency

Over $200 million in funding contributed by the Albanese and Crisafulli Governments and industry partners will help South East Queensland become a leading innovator in health and biotech, through the South East Queensland Innovation Economy Fund.

The Fund has awarded eight successful projects $94 million in joint Government funding, with industry leaders across critical sectors co-contributing over $122 million. This partnership between governments and industry will unlock $217 million worth of investments across South East Queensland.

Successful projects include:

• A $25 million grant to establish the Health and Advanced Technology Research and Innovation Centre (HATRIC) at the Gold Coast will build on the region’s leadership in biomedicine, biotechnology and additive manufacturing.
• Bringing together Griffith University, neighbouring hospitals and medical institutes, the project will leverage another $75 million from partners to expand the cutting-edge Gold Coast Health and Knowledge Precinct. It already employs more than 14,000 people, and is home to innovation such as the world’s first artificial rotary heart.
• An Australian-first biomedical scale-up and manufacturing facility will be established at the Bogo Road Innovation Precinct, thanks to $3 million in funding. The new Hub will support start-ups to develop innovative medical products, manufacture them on site and undertake clinical trials, positioning Brisbane to become leaders in bio-manufacturing. 
• A $25 million grant awarded to the AATLIS Innovation Precinct Industry Biotechnology Centre (IBC) to bring together start-ups and industry leaders to establish Australia’s first vertically-integrated biotechnological facility to support the rapid design, building and testing of new solutions for the agriculture sector.
• The University of Sunshine Coast Innovation Centre will be upgraded with five new specialist innovation labs to boost jobs and accelerate the local economy, thanks to a nearly $3 million investment. It includes a new Digital Health Productivity Lab, which will harness technology to advance innovation in the aged care sector and improve patient experience.

Quotes attributable to Federal Minister for Cities Jenny McAllister:

“The Albanese Government is building Australia’s future by backing Queensland innovation.

“By bringing together the expertise of universities, research institutes and industry, we can boost innovation, and create local jobs.

“It’s terrific to see investment in biotech that will not just improve health outcomes but also provide opportunities to build our economic future by leveraging world class research.

Quotes attributable to Queensland Minister for Science and Innovation Andrew Powell:

“Queensland Government is dedicated to investing in a thriving innovation ecosystem in South East Queensland.

“Strategic investment in world-class innovation precincts will drive the creation of high value knowledge-intensive jobs that will propel South East Queensland into a new era of prosperity.

“These precincts are the incubators for solutions to the region’s most pressing social and economic challenges.”

Further information:

SEQ Innovation Economy Fund successful applicants:

Applicant	Location	Joint Commonwealth and Queensland Funding	Project description
Therapeutic Innovation Australia Limited	Boggo Road Innovation Precinct, Brisbane	$3 million	Establishing the Bioproduction Hub (PM1) for multi modal therapeutics Phase 1 manufacturing at TRI. This Australian-first facility will enable production of biologics, vaccines, radiopharmaceuticals and mRNA therapeutics to support first-in-human clinical trials. The integration of specialist therapeutic manufacturing capability, quality control and regulatory expertise aims to streamline and fast-track the pathway from discovery science to clinical evaluation.
Translational  Research Institute	Boggo Road Innovation Precinct, Dutton Park	$6,807,251	This project will supercharge the Translational Manufacturing (TM@TRI) project and in turn supercharge the Boggo Road Innovation Precinct, accelerating the impact of this critical infrastructure.
Southern RNA	LNP-mRNA-Enable Project (LEAP): Driving LNP-mRNA Therapeutics to Clinical Trials	$2,777,667	The LNP-mRNA-Enable project aims to supercharge Queensland’s biomedical sector by building infrastructure and capacity that will unlock Queensland’s ability to locally translate and produce mRNA therapeutics. Led by Southern RNA and supported by research and industry partners in the field, the project will specifically develop capability around the development and manufacturing of Lipid Nanoparticle-mRNA, a vital step in the production and delivery of mRNA.
Witmack Industrial	AATLIS Innovation Precinct Industry Biotechnology Centre (IBC), Toowoomba	$25,000,000	The AATLIS Innovation Precinct Industry Biotechnology Centre (IBC) is a groundbreaking $50m initiative to establish Australia’s first vertically integrated biotechnological facility for distribution, sales, logistics, R&D, and toll manufacturing. This “One Stop Shop” will integrate AI-driven research and world-class technology with best-practice manufacturing capabilities and global end-users to strengthen supply chain security, advance environmentally conscious practices like reducing synthetic chemical use, and boost economic growth and export opportunities.
University of Queensland	Queensland Animal Science Precinct, Lockyer Valley	$21,807,000	Queensland Animal Science Innovation Hub – a place animal producers, farmers and industry can test and trial, scale and commercialise new farming and biosecurity innovations which enhances food security and the supply of affordable and reliable meat and animal products to Queensland and the world.
University of the Sunshine Coast	Innovation Centre Sunshine Coast, Sunshine Coast	$2,724,431	Future Skills Lab – five future skills specialist innovation labs, delivered in partnership with industry, and equipped with the latest tools and resources that accelerate the design, prototyping and testing of cutting-edge digital innovations.
Urban Utilities	Luggage Point Innovation Precinct, Brisbane	$7,670,811	Luggage Point Innovation Precinct Expansion: Pioneering Sustainable Water Solutions for Green Industries. Creating new spaces for pilot projects, sampling and research; and innovation-enabling infrastructure that will drive development and commercialisation of innovative water-related products and technologies including accelerating recycled water innovation; encouraging the adoption of recycled water; addressing persistent contaminants; and enabling hydrogen production to develop novel products from biogas, biosolids and organic waste.
Griffith University	Gold Coast Health and Knowledge Precinct, Gold Coast	$25 million	Health and Advanced Technology Research and Innovation Centre (HATRIC), a partnership between Griffith University (GU) and Economic Development Queensland is a new building that will significantly boost and synthesise the precinct’s capabilities, creating a seamless interface between university R&D and commercialisation with industry partners. Innovations enabled through HATRIC may include spinal injury repair, new vaccines, rehabilitation equipment, artificial ligaments, customised bionics for limb loss, quantum technologies for sportstech and circular economy technologies in recycling medical waste and lithium-ion batteries.

More information on the SEQ Innovation Economy Fund can be found at SEQ Innovation Economy Fund | Advance Queensland.

Source: Northern Territory Police and Fire Services

The Northern Territory Police Force has arrested a 25-year-old male in relation to domestic violence offences in Darwin.

This morning, police received intelligence that a male with an arrest warrant was within Bagot Community. It is alleged the male had been actively evading police.

Around 7:30am, Strike Force Trident and Dog Operations Unit (DOU) established a cordon around the community and commenced a search for the alleged offender.

A short time later, the offender and another male passenger were sighted in a vehicle driving erratically through the community and at some points on the footpath.

A tyre deflation device was deployed, which the offending vehicle attempted to avoid by swerving at officers and colliding with the rear of a Trident vehicle.

Multiple pursuits were commenced; however, they were terminated shortly after for safety reasons.

At around 08:30am, DOU members sighted the vehicle stopped on Buchanan Terrace in Nakara before the offender and the passenger fled the scene on foot.

Police deployed a taser which was ineffective, and the offender fled through a school oval on Nakara Terrace.

Patrol Dog Boss was deployed, but the 25-year-old male scaled a 12-foot fence and fled. A second dog handler followed over the fence, caught up to the man, and he surrendered without further incident.

The 30-year-old male passenger was also arrested and is assisting police with enquiries.

The 25-year-old offender remains in police custody with additional charges expected to follow.

Senior Sergeant Meacham King said, “I want to commend the work of all members involved in this arrest.

“It’s fortunate our officers weren’t seriously injured when the Trident vehicle was struck.

“The arrest is a testament to the strong collaboration between Strike Force Trident and Dog Operations Unit.

“We remain committed to holding offenders to account and bringing them before the courts.”

Source: Northern Territory Police and Fire Services

The Northern Territory Police Force has deployed the Fugitive Task Force (FTF) to the West Daly Region.

The FTF was stood up in December 2024 to boost ongoing efforts to target recidivist offenders and enhance community safety.

Over a three-day deployment to the West Daly Region, the task force has made 20 arrests and served two domestic violence orders, along with assisting local police with multiple outstanding matters.

The offences committed by those arrested include breach of bail, outstanding warrants, aggravated assault and breach of domestic violence orders.

Acting Commander Drew Slape said, “The Fugitive Task Force continues to focus on holding recidivist and high harm offenders to account.

“We will continue to pursue those who have outstanding matters and present ongoing risks to community safety.”

Source: Northern Territory Police and Fire Services

The Northern Territory Police Force has arrested a 53-year-old male in relation to a domestic violence incident that occurred in Alice Springs early this morning.

Around 1:25am, a female presented to the Alice Springs Police Station to report she had been assaulted by her partner with a blunt weapon at a residence in Braitling.

The victim sustained injuries to her head, face and arm, and was conveyed to the Alice Springs Hospital by St John Ambulance for treatment.

Police attended the residence and arrested a 53-year-old male at 2am.

He remains in police custody and investigations are ongoing.

Police urge anyone with information to call 131 444 and quote reference P25083467. Anonymous reports can also be made through Crime Stoppers on 1800 333 000.

If you or someone you know are experiencing difficulties due to domestic violence, support services are available, including, but not limited to, 1800RESPECT (1800737732) or Lifeline 131 114.

Source: Northern Territory Police and Fire Services

The Northern Territory Police Force is calling for information in relation to disturbances that occurred in Alice Springs yesterday.

Around 12:30pm, the Joint Emergency Services Communication Centre (JESCC) received multiple reports of groups fighting in the Alice Springs CBD. Police responded and the group dispersed.

A 37-year-old female was conveyed to the Alice Springs Hospital with minor injuries, along with a second victim with non-life-threatening injuries.

A 22-year-old female was arrested in relation to this incident and is expected to be charged.

Around 2:35pm, further alleged fighting occurred between the same groups on Hartley Street, with some participants allegedly armed with weapons.

Multiple police units responded, and the group once again dispersed.

Investigations are ongoing and police urge anyone with information to make contact on 131 444. Please quote reference P25082836. You can also report anonymously through Crime Stoppers on 1800 333 000 or via https://crimestoppersnt.com.au/.

Source: Historic Cooma Gaol listed on the NSW State Heritage Register

The Albanese Government and the Investment Dialogue for Australia’s Children (IDAC) will partner to build supply and capacity of integrated early years services.

The Albanese Government will provide up to $50 million through the Build Early Education Fund, toward co-investment opportunities to help build or expand integrated and holistic early learning services in areas of need.

Philanthropic partners of IDAC have also committed to up to $50 million in-principle funding, to bring together early learning, child and maternal health services, and family and community supports.

Philanthropic funding will also be targeted towards initiatives that strengthen a holistic early childhood development system, such as measures to strengthen the not-for-profit sector’s capacity as well as research and evaluation.

The partnership represents one of the biggest co-investments between government and philanthropy in Australian history.

IDAC is a flagship collaboration between the Government and philanthropic organisations to improve the health and wellbeing of children, young people, and their families.

This co-investment is the next major step in translating commitments made at the 2024 IDAC Roundtable into action.

The partnership also builds on the significant reforms the Albanese Government is delivering across the early childhood education and care sector, ensuring children and families have universal access to high-quality early learning.

To learn more about these reforms visit education.gov.au/early-childhood/announcements/building-universal-early-education-and-care-system

Quotes attributable to Treasurer Jim Chalmers:

“The transformational power of education begins with quality early childhood education and care.

“Every child has a right to early education no matter their background or where they live, and this partnership is a milestone on our path to universal education and care.

“This investment isn’t just good for children, it gives parents and carers the choice to return to work or study earlier if they want to – helping families earn more and keep more of what they earn.”

Quotes attributable to Minister for Social Services Amanda Rishworth:

“The first years of a child’s life are vitally important to their wellbeing, education and development.

“This partnership builds on the successes of IDAC and continues to enliven community-led solutions to meet the aspirations of communities, families and their children.

“It is another example of the Government working together with community and philanthropy to find solutions that are led by and are meaningful for the families and children who will most benefit.”

Quotes attributable to Minister for Early Childhood Dr Anne Aly:

“We’re strengthening local communities by ensuring that Government and philanthropy work together to maximise our efforts and deliver for disadvantaged communities.

“The Albanese Labor Government is laying the foundations for a truly universal early childhood education system through improving affordability, boosting supply, increasing accessibility and securing the vital workforce families rely on.

“No child should have to carry disadvantage through their life – we know that by investing in the early years we can change the trajectory of a child’s life and improve their education and health outcomes.”

Quotes attributable to Paul Ramsay Foundation CEO Professor Kristy Muir:

“This is a major step towards an Australia where every child has what they need to thrive in the first critical years of life.

“Through these co-investments, we’re creating the conditions needed for kids and families to have experiences in the early years that set them up for life.”

Quotes attributable to Minderoo Foundation CEO John Hartman:

“Minderoo Foundation is proud to be part of a collaborative effort with the Federal Government and other philanthropies to empower communities to break cycles of adversity by tackling issues at their root causes.

“The most effective way to create sustainable change is to provide the resources and capability that communities need to be able to lead the way and providing infrastructure that brings services together and benefits the whole community.

“This commitment by government and philanthropy will help build a fair future for Australian children and families.”

Quotes attributable to The Bryan Foundation Executive Director Matthew Cox:

“When we look to the services and supports other OECD countries have established to support their children we see highly integrated early learning, child and maternal health and family support services under the one roof providing all the help that families need.

“This partnership will enable us to put more of these kinds of joined-up services on the ground and begin to plan for how to do this at scale.”

Quotes attributable to Investment Dialogue for Australia’s Children Executive Convenor Simon Factor:

“This is an exciting moment for IDAC, where ambitious discussions and significant commitments are being transformed into a record co-investment that will deliver tangible benefits for children and families.

“This partnership represents a crucial step in building the early childhood development system of the future – one that is integrated, sustainable, and focused on delivering the best outcomes for all Australian children.”

Source: Assistant Minister for Industry, Innovation and Science

27 March 2025

The Albanese Labor Government and Allen Labor Government are working together to deliver more frontline critical family, domestic and sexual violence services in Victoria.

Both governments have demonstrated their commitment to ending gender-based violence by renewing the five-year National Partnership Agreement on Family, Domestic and Sexual Violence Responses.

The Victorian Government will receive an additional $89.7 million in Commonwealth funding as part of the renewed National Partnership, bringing the total Commonwealth investment to $163.9 million since 2022.   

The funding is matched by the Victorian Government to support frontline family, domestic and sexual violence services, including specialist services for women and children, and men’s behaviour change programs.

Minister for Social Services, Amanda Rishworth, said that real, transparent and productive partnerships between governments are required to achieve change.

“Through the FDSV National Partnership, we are demonstrating the commitment of governments to work together to fund frontline services, strengthen supports and ultimately end gender-based violence in Australia,” Minister Rishworth said.

“This renewed partnership will provide longer term funding certainty to family, domestic and sexual violence frontline services and help impacted Victorians access the support they need.”

“The signing of this agreement marks an important milestone of delivery with all states and territories now having signed renewed partnership agreements with the Commonwealth.”

The renewed FDSV National Partnership will deliver over $700 million across all jurisdictions in new, matched investments from the Commonwealth and states and territories, supporting frontline FDSV services, including specialist services for women and children impacted by FDSV, and men’s behaviour change programs.

An additional $1 million will also be used for an independent evaluation of the renewed FDSV National Partnership.

More information on the FDSV National Partnership Agreement is available on the Federal Financial Relations website.

If you or someone you know is experiencing, or at risk of experiencing domestic, family and sexual violence, you can call 1800RESPECT on 1800 737 732, text 0458 737 732 or visit www.1800respect.org.au for online chat and video call services:

• Available 24/7: Call, text or online chat
• Mon-Fri, 9am – midnight AEST (except national public holidays): Video call (no appointment needed) 

If you are concerned about your behaviour or use of violence, you can contact the Men’s Referral Service on 1300 766 491 or visit www.ntv.org.au

Feeling worried or no good? Connect with 13YARN Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islander Crisis Supporters on 13 92 76, available 24/7 from any mobile or pay phone, or visit www.13yarn.org.au No shame, no judgement, safe place to yarn.

Source: Allens Insights (legal sector)

Draft assessment guidelines open for consultation 5 min read

The ACCC has released its draft merger assessment guidelines (Draft Guidelines) for consultation, offering a preview of how it plans to assess mergers under the new mandatory regime (which comes into effect on 1 January 2026).

In this Insight, we highlight key aspects of the ACCC’s renewed approach and what the proposed changes would mean for your business.

Key takeaways

• Businesses that may be seen as already having a substantial degree of market power can expect close scrutiny of any transactions where the target has overlapping goods or services, even if the market share increment is low. According to the ACCC, even mergers that lead to a small change in market power can potentially substantially lessen competition.
• The ACCC has set out its proposed framework for assessing mergers that may eliminate potential competition, involve multi-sided platforms or form part of a set of serial acquisitions. We expect these will be key areas of focus under the new regime for all sectors, but will particularly impact transactions in the tech, financial services and supermarket sectors.
• Merger parties will need to demonstrate that any claimed pro-competitive efficiencies are specifically related to the merger and are likely to be realised.
• The Draft Guidelines represent a significant update to the ACCC’s guidelines published in November 2008, with more detailed guidance on the approach to the new and more novel competition issues with which the ACCC has grappled in recent years. The Draft Guidelines indicate a level of convergence with those issued by US agencies in 2023.

What you need to know

Creating, strengthening or entrenching market power

Under the new regime, the ACCC will consider whether a merger is likely to create, strengthen or entrench a substantial degree of market power in determining whether it substantially lessens competition.

The ACCC’s position is that a merger can substantially lessen competition even if it leads to only a small change in market power.

Mergers that eliminate potential competition, including killer acquisitions

The ACCC plans to look closely at mergers that eliminate potential competition, eg mergers in which an incumbent acquires a nascent rival or potential entrant.

The ACCC has expressly called out killer acquisitions, where an acquirer acquires a target (a potential competitor) to neutralise the competitive threat before the target develops into a true rival. Alternatively, a business may decide to acquire an existing player instead of entering a certain market itself, thereby removing competition that would have been introduced by the acquirer’s own entry.

The ACCC considers that in markets characterised by network effects (where users derive more value from a product if more users use the same product), potential competitors that threaten to displace the incumbent’s market position may exert the greatest competitive constraint.

The ACCC is on the lookout for acquirers undertaking multiple acquisitions of nascent rivals over time and says this could strengthen or entrench the acquirer’s market power.

It considers that the loss of potential competition will be more relevant in markets where significant and long-term investments are necessary, eg digital platforms or pharmaceutical companies.

Mergers involving multi-sided platforms

In relation to multi-sided platforms (platforms that supply services to two or more distinct but related customer groups, eg social media platforms and shopping centres), the ACCC observes that such platforms tend to be characterised by network effects. The ACCC is concerned that these effects may be so strong and self-reinforcing that they create a ‘tipping effect‘, where one platform becomes supreme and smaller platforms only exert a weak constraint.

The ACCC has indicated that in assessing mergers relating to multi-sided platforms, it will consider factors such as whether one or both sides of the platform are impacted, the incentives of the platform operator and the strength of network effects. It also proposes to consider the risk of amplifying a party’s market power, eg where interoperability or multi-homing is necessary to compete.

Cumulative effects of serial acquisitions

The ACCC is setting its sights on serial acquisitions. Under the new regime, the ACCC will be able to take into account prior acquisitions that, when viewed together (in the same or related markets and in the preceding three years), would be likely to substantially lessen competition.

The ACCC foreshadows that it may consider information and evidence about the acquirer’s previous and future business plans, incentives behind the acquisitions and the likely impact of both the notified transaction and the series of acquisitions on the merged entity’s market position.

Efficiencies

The ACCC proposes to take a discerning approach to arguments about efficiencies.

It says a merger that removes or weakens competitive constraints will, in many cases, substantially lessen competition even if the merger results in a more efficient firm with a lower cost structure.

It has stressed that it will only consider merger-related efficiencies to be relevant where there is clear and compelling information or evidence that the efficiencies incentivise the merged firm to compete more vigorously against rivals.

The ACCC will seek to verify that any claimed efficiencies arise specifically from the merger and will consider the parties’ alternative options to achieving these efficiencies in testing this.

Merger parties will need to demonstrate that the efficiencies are likely to materialise and that they improve the incentives to compete, eg through internal documents and external experts’ studies.

Comparisons with guidelines from overseas regimes

The approach the ACCC has taken is similar to the approach taken by the UK Competition and Markets Authority as reflected in its 2021 Merger Assessment Guidelines and the approach taken by US agencies as set out in the 2023 Joint Merger Guidelines issued by the US Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission (US Merger Guidelines), although there are some subtle differences. Comparing the Draft Guidelines and US Merger Guidelines:

• The Draft Guidelines do not create a presumption of illegality, unlike the US Merger Guidelines. However, both reflect the agencies’ respective positions that a small increase in existing market power may be sufficient to substantially lessen competition in an already consolidated market.
• Both focus on eliminating potential competition and ‘killer acquisitions’.
• The Draft Guidelines expressly deal with serial acquisitions, whereas the US Merger Guidelines frames this issue within a broader context of industry trends and consolidation.
• Both approach mergers involving multi-sided platforms in a similar way. The US Merger Guidelines outline an approach to examining ‘competition between platforms, on a platform or to displace a platform’.
• The Draft Guidelines include a framework to ensure claimed merger efficiencies are ‘merger specific’ and ‘verifiable’. This is largely consistent with the approach agencies have traditionally taken to closely scrutinise claims of efficiencies.

Next steps

The ACCC’s public consultation on the Draft Guidelines is open until 17 April 2025. If you would like to discuss the Draft Guidelines, the impact they may have on your business and the steps you can take to prepare for the new merger regime, please get in touch with us.

You can read our previous Insight for a detailed overview of the legal framework and key elements of the new merger regime, or download our practical summary here.

Source: Australian Ministers for Regional Development

The ACCC is predicting gas supply in the east coast gas market could fall short by 9 petajoules (PJ) in the period July to September 2025, if LNG producers export all their uncontracted gas, according to its updated assessment.

This period, which includes winter months, usually sees the highest demand domestically for gas due to colder temperatures.

The ACCC’s short-term update indicates the supply-demand forecast has dropped by 22 PJ since the December 2024 quarter report, due to a fall in production and increased exports.

In the southern states, the supply shortfall is projected to reach a historic high of 40 PJ for the quarter.

The revised outlook coupled with market risks, such as higher demand for gas in case of unexpected weather events or outages of coal-fired power plants, increases the risk of a shortfall across the east coast without access to the LNG producers’ surplus gas.

“This changed outlook reflects the susceptibility of the supply/demand balance to short-term reductions in gas production and changes in LNG producers’ intended exports and swaps,” ACCC Commissioner Anna Brakey said.

“The east coast supply and demand balance is projected to worsen further over the next few years, which will increase the impact of LNG producers’ decisions on the market. It remains crucial that LNG producers have regard to the domestic outlook before making any significant variations to export volumes or schedules.”

“To ensure that the east coast gas market has enough gas this winter, including through any significant demand or supply shocks, we recommend that the Australian Government work with LNG producers to secure additional gas, which is currently uncommitted, for the domestic market,” Ms Brakey said.

Chart 2: Quarterly supply demand outlook for quarter 3, 2025 (PJ)

_{Source: ACCC analysis of data obtained from gas producers in January 2025 and of the domestic demand forecast (Step Change scenario) from AEMO, Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO), March 2025.}

  _{Note:     Totals may not sum due to rounding.}

Shortfall of gas supply in the southern states doubles

The predicted 40 PJ shortfall of gas in the southern states for the third quarter of 2025 is twice that of the same time in 2024.

This is mainly due to declining production from the Gippsland, Otway and Cooper basins, and higher forecast demand for gas-powered electricity generation.

The ACCC projects that the 40 PJ gap will be able to be met by transporting surplus gas from Queensland (about 30 PJ) and drawing on southern state gas stores (about 10 PJ).

“Pleasingly, we expect that there will be adequate gas and sufficient pipeline and storage capacity to meet the shortfall in the south. But, without access to the LNG producers’ surplus gas, the current outlook provides very little buffer for unexpected events, including extreme weather, higher than allowed-for demand, or higher than usual outages in coal-fired power stations,” Ms Brakey said.

“Actual supply and demand for the third quarter of the year could surprise on the up or down sides. But with not enough new supply coming online to offset declining production in the southern states and higher, more volatile, demand for gas-powered generation, there needs to be a bigger buffer for downside risks.”

The report highlights the importance of sufficient storage in the southern states in averting a shortfall.

“Iona underground storage is essential to meet winter demand,” Ms Brakey said.

Chart 2: Southern states outlook for quarter 3, 2025

                         

_{Source: ACCC analysis of data obtained from gas producers in January 2025 and of the domestic demand forecast (Step Change scenario) from AEMO, Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO), March 2025.}

  _{Note:     Totals may not sum due to rounding.}

Government response to ACCC report

The ACCC report recommended that the Australian Government work with LNG producers to secure additional gas, which is currently uncommitted, for the domestic market, to ensure that the east coast gas market has enough gas this winter.  

The ACCC recognises the commitments made by the LNG producers to the government and welcomes the progress this represents. It is important that LNG producers ensure that the needs of the domestic market are met before they export gas that is currently uncontracted.

“It is an important step for the LNG producers to fulfil the commitments they have made to the government in order to reduce the risk of a shortfall eventuating over the July to September period if all uncontracted gas was exported,” Ms Brakey said.

“Our March report identified that, between them, the three LNG producers have sufficient uncontracted gas to supply the domestic market if they make it available.”

“We will continue to report quarterly on the supply and demand balance in the market.”

Long-term gas contract update shows prices have eased

In another update to the market released today, ACCC analysis of contracts for supply over 2025 and 2026 shows that prices eased, and agreed volumes for supply increased, over the six months to December 2024 compared to the preceding six months.

The average price for gas in producer contracts for supply in 2025 fell by about 10 per cent (to $13.58 per gigajoule) in the second half of 2024 compared to the previous six months. Prices in retailer gas supply contracts dropped slightly in the same period, to an average of $14.51 per gigajoule (GJ).

Average producer prices for 2026 supply fell by 2 per cent to $13.94 per GJ compared to the first half of 2024. Retailer prices averaged $13.55 per GJ. “This report shows encouraging signs on gas supply, but there is still a way to go,” Ms Brakey said.

“While the increase in contracted gas and the reduction in prices are positive developments, the total volumes for 2025 and 2026 remain significantly below those contracted before the energy crisis for 2021 and 2022.”

Background

In 2017, the Australian Government directed the ACCC to conduct a wide-ranging inquiry into the supply of and demand for natural gas in Australia, and to publish regular information on the supply and pricing of gas. The ACCC will conduct the inquiry until 2030.

The Interim update on east coast gas supply-demand outlook provides an updated picture on the gas supply-demand balance for the east coast gas market for quarter 3 of 2025. The ACCC reports quarterly on the gas supply outlook which provides information that assists Government decision making, including in relation to the ADGSM.

The Interim update on long-term contract prices for July – December 2024 provides updated pricing and other information on contracts agreed for long-term supply of gas (for terms of 12 months or more) on the east coast market during the period July to December 2024. This report is in response to a request from the Minister for Climate Change and Energy on 14 November 2024 to increase the frequency of reporting on gas supply agreements as an interim means of improving the transparency of gas prices.